Playing nine innings while enjoying this restored feeling of believing in the Red Sox to begin a season . . .
1. Maybe this is hope springing eternal, or maybe it’s just the sugar from my Frosted Mini Wheats kicking in, but I’ve got a great feeling about the Red Sox’ chances of winning the American League East. I’d even call them the favorites, given that the Yankees have been mauled by injuries (Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Gil), while the Orioles lost ace Corbin Burnes to free agency and potential ace Grayson Rodriguez has been pestered by a sore elbow this spring. The Sox have a budding ace in Garrett Crochet, a much-improved defense with Alex Bregman at third base and a healthy Trevor Story at shortstop, a deep, well-rounded lineup, and organizational depth. This is the best team they’ve had on paper since Mookie Betts was still here.
2. My one caveat/addendum is that the Sox will be a better team at the end of the season than they will be at the beginning. They came into spring training with more starting pitching depth than they have had in years, and yet that depth is already being tested, with Brayan Bello (shoulder), Lucas Giolito (hamstring), and Kutter Crawford (knee) starting the season on the injured list. There may be a small blessing here in the early opportunity to find out if Richard Fitts can be as good as he looked down the stretch last season, but dealing with pitching injuries right away is not ideal. The Sox also need to sort out their closer situation (Justin Slaten gets my vote), and it doesn’t look like any among the trio of vaunted prospects will break camp with the big club. The Sox will be good right away, and yet a work in progress.
3. I do believe Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer will all help the major league team this season, and wasn’t that coming attractions performance in the Spring Breakout Game — when all three homered — the ultimate tease for what they could be? It’s mildly disappointing that Campbell (.445 OPS this spring) didn’t seize the second base job, in part because speedy David Hamilton is best suited as a super-utility player rather than a regular. But it’s not really a surprise — Campbell has just 85 plate appearances in Triple A, and some time in Worcester is probably best. Jackson Holliday, a super talent who was rushed by the Orioles last season and hit just .189, isn’t exactly a cautionary tale, but he is a reminder that it’s usually prudent to be patient.
4. Of the kids, Anthony, whose home run in the Spring Breakout Game may well have cleared the Florida/Georgia border, has been the most impressive. Baseball’s consensus No. 1 overall hitting prospect just looks the part of future perennial All-Star and lineup anchor, and it’s going to be an exciting day whenever he makes his debut at Fenway. But I think Mayer, because of various injuries in the minors as well as struggles against lefthanded pitching, is the most underestimated of the three super prospects. He’s graceful in the field and has a lovely, powerful swing from the left side. It’s absurd to me that FanGraphs listed Mayer way down as the sport’s No. 57 prospect in February.
5. A couple of other items that I’m keeping an eye on: Can Walker Buehler be an above-average starting pitcher right away? We remember how electric he was in closing out the World Series for the Dodgers last season, but he got knocked around pretty hard in 16 regular-season starts (5.38 ERA, minus-1.2 WAR) after missing almost two full seasons following Tommy John surgery. He has looked good this spring, and the Sox are counting on him to be reliable right away. Also, are we sure Connor Wong is the long-term starting catcher? His defensive metrics are subpar, his bat fell off in the second half (.696 OPS) and Yankees refugee Carlos Narvaez is outstanding defensively. Curious to see how this spot shakes out.
6. As an excellent player gets deeper into his career, I almost organically start to think of him as one of two things: a future Hall of Famer or not a future Hall of Famer. In recent years, and despite Rafael Devers’s almost comical ownership of him, I’ve thought of Cole in the first category, as a player who can at least start jotting down some thoughts for a future speech in Cooperstown. Now that he’s lost for this season and at least part of the next one while recovering from Tommy John surgery, I no longer think he’s getting there.
7. Cole has been an exceptional pitcher for a decade. He’s won one Cy Young Award (2023), finished second in the voting twice (2019, 2021), and finished in the top five three other times, including way back in 2015 with the Pirates. Yet at age 34, he has accumulated 43.2 career wins above replacement, well below the 72.9 average WAR of the starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Wins don’t carry the weight they once did, but it is stunning that he’s tied for 250th place (with Dan Haren and Don Newcombe) in MLB history with 153 victories.
8. Not to turn this entire column into a case for leaving Cole’s name unchecked when he’s on the Hall of Fame ballot roughly a decade from now, but he has fewer wins than Jim Lonborg (157), Bill Lee (169), and Derek Lowe (176), among many, many others. His most similar pitcher statistically — and in terms of career shape, with more time spent searching for redemption than you would think would be necessary for someone of his talents — is another Red Sox, David Price. And Price is probably going to be a one-and-done on the ballot when his time comes.
9. I know some among us became, let’s say, skeptical of Chris Sale toward the end of his time here, in part because of all of the injuries, and in part because he was so earnestly accountable after something went wrong that, cynically, doubts about his sincerity might have creeped in. I always found him to be authentic, someone who genuinely did get what the Red Sox mean to New Englanders and agonized over letting people down. So I wasn’t surprised whatsoever at his thoughtful and pitch-perfect tribute to Luis Tiant, mimicking the late Red Sox legend’s twirling delivery on his first pitch in the Braves’ matchup with the Red Sox last Saturday. It was a heartfelt sign that, yes, Sale gets it.
Chad Finn can be reached at chad.finn@globe.com. Follow him @GlobeChadFinn.