NBA success can be fickle, but when the Celtics climbed down from their duck boats last June, they were champions well positioned to reach the mountaintop again.
Boston returned its core pieces and was the heavy favorite to become the first team since the 2018 Warriors to win back-to-back titles.
That dream ended last week, when the plucky Knicks punted the Celtics into summer in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Now, stability has been replaced by uncertainty in Boston. The ballooning payroll and tax penalties were likely to lead to substantial changes regardless, but Jayson Tatum’s Achilles’ injury that could force him to miss all of next season will ignite difficult questions about how president of basketball operations Brad Stevens should proceed.
Yes, the Celtics failed in their quest to win consecutive titles, but is their championship window with this core now closing, too?
“We have a lot of good guys in that locker room, and the thought of not having someone on the team next year, it’s hard to wrap your head around,’’ forward Sam Hauser said. “But there is a lot of uncertainty now, especially with Jayson’s injury.’’
The Celtics have 12 players under contract for next season, but gloomy financial realities make it complicated.
Boston is projected to have a combined salary and luxury tax bill of about $500 million, which would be the highest in NBA history. As a team operating above the second salary apron line, it faces team-building restrictions.
As a second apron team, the Celtics cannot combine contracts in a trade, send out cash in a trade, sign a player in the buyout market who was making more than $14.1 million, or use traded player exceptions. And, most prohibitively, their first-round draft pick seven years out is frozen. So, since the Celtics were a second-apron team this year, their 2032 first-round pick cannot be traded, and if they remain above the apron next year, the same will be true of their 2033 first-round choice.
Combine that with the fact that teams cannot trade all their first-round picks in consecutive seasons, and that Boston is already without its 2029 first-round choice, the looming confinement becomes clear.
Boston is projected to be about $20 million above the second apron line. The team could look to shed the $30.7 million expiring contract of center Kristaps Porzingis, whose season disintegrated due to effects from a March respiratory illness.
But the Nets are the only team with the room to absorb such a large contract, so Boston would likely have to take salary back in return.
Point guard Jrue Holiday, who turns 35 next month, will make $32.4 million next season and has three years left on his extension.
“I think we still have a really, really great opportunity and a great window to win a championship again,’’ Holiday said. “I think the talent that we have on this team, not only on the court, but the coaching staff, all the way up to Brad, has been amazing. So, the opportunity to win is now, and I still want to be a part of that.’’
Hauser will be paid $10 million next season as he starts the four-year, $45 million contract he signed with the Celtics last year. That’s a good deal for the team’s best 3-point shooter, but because of luxury-tax penalties, that $10 million salary would end up costing closer to $80 million.
Hauser’s deal could also easily slide into a team’s traded player exception, so the Celtics would not have to take money back in such a deal.
Big men Al Horford and Luke Kornet are both unrestricted free agents. Horford, who turns 39 next month, made it clear soon after last season ended that he intended to return. But he was noncommittal Saturday, and the team’s more uncertain future, particularly with Tatum’s injury, could change the calculus this time.
“I just think everything is just still very fresh for me,’’ Horford said. “Those are all things that I’ll be thinking about these next few weeks.’’
He could retire, or he could look to sign with a team better positioned for a title.
Kornet, 29, had an excellent season, highlighted by his monstrous seven-block performance in Boston’s Game 5 win against the Knicks. Kornet was on a one-year minimum salary deal this year and will have suitors this summer. The Celtics have Kornet’s “Bird rights,’’ meaning they could re-sign him without salary-cap restrictions, but their financial realities will also be factored in.
“I’ll figure out stuff when it kind of comes to it,’’ Kornet said. “At this point, you’re just kind of trying to unwind and spend some time with family and you don’t even know what everything is going to look like.’’
Torrey Craig, who signed with the team in February after being waived by the Bulls, is also an unrestricted free agent. The Celtics have a team option for G League MVP JD Davison, whose two-way deal was converted to a standard NBA contract last month.
The Celtics own their first-round pick, 28th overall, in next month’s draft, and they will receive the Wizards’ second-round pick, 32nd overall, as part of the 2023 deal that brought Porzingis to Boston.
If the Celtics get back below the second apron, as expected, they will also become eligible to use a $5.6 million taxpayer mid-level exception to sign a player. If it is determined that Tatum will likely miss all of next season, Boston could also apply for a $14.1 million disabled player exception.
But if Tatum is out, it is unlikely that adding a player at a fairly high salary would be worth the cost considering the Celtics’ outlook. Things have certainly shifted suddenly and dramatically, but forward Jaylen Brown, for one, remains optimistic.
“I know, Boston, it looks gloomy right now, obviously with JT being out and us kind of ending the year, but it’s a lot to look forward to,’’ said Brown, who will soon decide whether to undergo surgery on his partial meniscus tear. “I want the city to feel excited about that. This is not the end, so I’m looking forward to what’s next.’’
Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at adam.himmelsbach @globe.com. Follow him @adamhimmelsbach.
