Fenway Park’s dramatically tilted dimensions create an opportunity for one of the foremost home-field advantages in baseball. In recent years, the Red Sox have failed to seize it, leaving them with a glaring need on their offseason to-do list.
The most reliable way to generate offense is to have a righthanded hitter pull a fly ball at Fenway. Last year, doing so produced a mind-blowing .643 batting average and 2.147 slugging mark.
That average represented the highest on fly balls in any direction for any batter. The latter represented the highest slugging percentage at any ballpark for any combination of batter, contact type, and direction.
Everyone understands that some routine fly outs in most parks regularly sail off or over the Wall at Fenway, yet it’s striking to put numbers to the park’s drastic impact. In 2024, there were 131 pulled fly balls by righties at Fenway. Those resulted in 57 homers and 23 doubles (along with three singles) — that’s 61 percent of pulled fly balls going for extra-base hits, and 44 percent clearing the Monster.
And yet the Red Sox were strikingly ill-equipped to take advantage. The Sox had just 59 pulled fly balls from righthanded hitters at Fenway last year, fourth fewest in the big leagues. Far from a shock, given that righties accounted for just 42 percent of their home plate appearances.
Among the 30 big league teams, the Sox had the third-lowest percentage of home plate appearances go to righthanded hitters last year. The 42 percent mark represented the second-lowest allotment in team history, trailing only the 2011 team’s 40 percent.
Manager Alex Cora frequently cited the lack of righthanded options as the Sox again struggled to win at home, going 38-43 — tied for the third worst home record in the American League. Offense clearly played a significant role, as the Sox scored 4.52 runs per game at home, compared with 4.75 on the road.
Obviously, the absence of Trevor Story played a meaningful role. Still, the Sox had only three righthanded hitters — Tyler O’Neill (16), Ceddanne Rafaela (14), and Connor Wong (14) — who hit at least five fly balls to left in Fenway Park.
O’Neill is now gone, signed with the Orioles as a free agent. While the Red Sox are hopeful for a healthy season from Story and could also see prospect Kristian Campbell — a righthanded hitter who in 2024 showed remarkable aptitude in learning how to drive the ball in the air for power — contribute for at least some of 2025, the need to add righthanded pop is glaring.
It’s worth noting the contrast between the Red Sox’ distribution of at-bats and that of the Astros, the team that plays in the home that comes closest to Fenway in terms of amplifying the production of righties thanks to their Crawford Boxes in left field.
Righties hit .568 and slugged 1.955 on pulled fly balls in Houston last year. The Astros — who went 46-35 at home, the third-best home record in the AL — took advantage by entrusting 66 percent of their home plate appearances to righties. This offseason, when facing the prospect of losing Alex Bregman to free agency, the Astros traded for Isaac Paredes, who ranked second among righthanded hitters with 69 pulled fly balls last year, underscoring the way they build their lineup for their ballpark.
It remains to be seen whether the Red Sox do the same, though some of the righthanded options — middle infielder Willy Adames and outfielder Teoscar Hernández — are off the board.
“In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat out of the middle of the lineup,’’ chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said. “I think it stretches out the lineup. It balances out guys like Jarren [Duran] and Raffy [Devers] and Triston [Casas] and Masa [Yoshida] and others. But I also think that that production could come from a number of places. There are guys internally that may be able to take a step forward. And we’re certainly also engaged in conversations for players that aren’t yet in the organization.’’
The two most prominent righthanded hitters on the market are Bregman and Nolan Arenado, whom the Cardinals are open to dealing with three years and $74 million left on his contract. Arenado’s 45 pulled fly balls ranked 10th among righthanded hitters, and his rate of pulling fly balls in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances was in the 85th percentile for righthanded hitters. Bregman’s 40 pulled fly balls were tied for 14th, while his 6.3 percent pulled fly ball rate ranked in the 77th percentile. Both have a track record that suggests an ability to thrive in a park that rewards that approach.
Switch-hitter Anthony Santander would benefit from Fenway as a righthanded hitter, but since the majority of his at-bats are as a lefty, Fenway’s impact on his offense likely would be negative.
Jurickson Profar is likewise a switch-hitter, but given that he’s an all-fields hitter from both sides, he’d likely realize some marginal benefit from playing in Fenway.
Other less-prominent free agents include old friend Adam Duvall (96th percentile among righties in rate of pulled fly balls per plate appearance), as well as Randal Grichuk and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom pull fly balls at roughly the same rate as Bregman.
The list of options, however, is far from huge at a time when there’s considerable need for the Red Sox to find righthanded thump.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com.
